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Article: Will Bush Put Money in Your Pocket?  An Inaugural Job Rundown

Article Group List / Entrepreneurship / Will Bush Put Money in Your Pocket?  An Inaugural Job Rundown

Will Bush Put Money in Your Pocket?  An Inaugural Job Rundown

Let's get a couple of things straight.

One, George W. Bush is not stupid.  Okay, W would most likely come in third in a "Jeopardy" tournament if matched with his erstwhile adversary, Al Gore, and his predecessor, Bill Clinton, but Bush is at least smart enough to be elected president, which should count for something.  He's one of the few people who doesn't have to worry about his job for at least four years.

Two, presidents have less control over the economy than you would believe. The best thing a president can do for the economy is nothing. It's best left to experts such as Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan (perhaps the most powerful man in America) and market forces in general. Bill Clinton's lasting economic legacy will be allowing the technology boom to mature unfettered.

Where the jobs are

You're probably wondering at this point what the impact of the election will be on your career. Well, when it comes down to it, corporate America is salivating over the impending Bush presidency and high-paid bankers and lawyers should be, too.

For example, the oil and logging industries are likely to benefit from his business-friendly environmental policies. If Bush, as expected, allows for more drilling and logging, it will likely mean more jobs in those industries.

Winners: Oil barons and paper manufacturers; the seasonal workers oil barons and paper manufacturers employ, environmentalists (who will have more to fight against.) Losers: Anyone dependent on pristine landscapes for tourist dollars, spotted owls, air quality.

Read my lips, Dad, I'm cuttin' taxes!

Bush the Younger's chief impact, however, will be on tax policy and antitrust enforcement. It's widely believed Bush will be inclined to cut taxes. That should provide an initial boost to the slowing economy. The long-term effects are unclear, as long-term effects often are. The theory behind widespread tax cuts (ridiculed, once upon a time, by Bush's father, former President George H.W. Bush) is that the money put back in people's pockets (especially rich people) will trickle down through spending and investment. The flip side of the debate is that such tax cuts don't help those that need economic relief the most.

Winners: Most anyone who pays taxes, but especially those who pay a lot of taxes (investment bankers and lawyers will enjoy their fat bonus checks even more next year). Losers: Those that rely on social programs that may be scaled back (NPR commentators, start floating your resume.) ~

Let's get hitched

The Bush years are also likely to be merger-friendly. It's safe to say that monopoly breakup will not be a top priority of the 43rd president's administration.  Analysts expect Bush to discourage thorough and aggressive inquiries into mega-mergers such as America Online/Time Warner and American Airlines/TWA. (Don't think Microsoft executives weren't breathing a sigh of relief when the winner was declared. There's a good chance a Bush Justice Department will allow for settlement terms more favorable to Microsoft, so a breakup seems unlikely.)

Winners: Bill Gates and his underlings; tech-happy investors, M&A lawyers. Losers: Steve Jobs and his underlings; antitrust lawyers.

Vouching for vouchers

The wild cards are Bush's other policies and the divided Congress. While tax cuts and lax enforcement of monopoly statutes will provide a short-term boost to the economy, some of Bush's other plans are harder to read. For example, at times Bush has advocated private school vouchers. If the voucher plan works (that is, children who normally wouldn't have access to quality education suddenly will), the effects on the economy won't be realized for some time. In the short term, diverting that money from other programs could conceivably affect the economy.

Winners: Private schools; middle-income parents of private school children. Losers: Public school teachers and suppliers.

Put your dukes up

As for Bush's defense policies, a "Star Wars" defense system would be a boon to defense companies but could lead to an arms race. (That might not be a bad thing. We did come out of the last one pretty well.) The billions (or trillions) spent will have to come from somewhere; that somewhere might be the tax cuts or social programs that are so vital to the economy.

Winners: Defense contractors. Losers: Russians.

The crystal ball

Of course, this is all moot if Bush can't push his agenda through a Congress that only narrowly favors his party. The huge tax cut he promised during the campaign will likely be scaled down to pass the more critical members of Congress.

So what does this mean for the economy? Bush will likely provide a small short-term boost, but Alan Greenspan can (and will) do more. M&A specialists will be happy to not have to worry about the DOJ. And anyone cashing a big bonus check can expect to take home more of it in the next couple of years. Long-term, where it counts, is anyone's guess.