But you don't need them to tell you that someone's letting the air out of the IT boom. You've been hearing about it every day - big companies like Motorola and Cisco, marchFirst and Sapient.  Little companies like - oh, I don't know … (name of your employer?) I won't lie to you, everybody's a little nervous these days.  So, If you've got that funny feeling that you could be at risk, here are some ways to know.

Pink Slips:

Not for your project or department, but for other people in other groups.  Make sure this supposed layoff isn't the product of someone's fertile imagination - but if it's true, you need to do some analysis.  Was it in another state or even another country?  Was it related to manufacturing?  Was it close to home - in your location or in a group like yours?

While a layoff is always a signal, it may or may not have relevance to you.  If you work for a very large company, layoffs in another unit or location may mean nothing at all to you personally.  They're a way of reducing costs or dispensing with a product/service line that is no longer profitable to the organization.

But, If downsizing seems a bit too near for comfort, you'll need to dig deeper.  Do the same if a massive layoff across the board is announced.  What's the reason for it?  Did the company lose a contract?  Get bashed hard by the analysts?  Get cut off by the venture capitalists?  As distant from your daily existence as that may be, it's something you need to watch other than your portfolio.

If you're not among the first ones to be hit, you've lucked out.  You've been gifted with an early warning system.  Read the newspaper or watch a business news channel.  Keep an eye on your favorite tech website news section (Check out JobCircle's Tech News Today on the home page).  Just keep up with what's going on in the world.  And pay even closer attention to what's happening in your own office.  Is it taking longer for your expenses to get processed?  Have they switched from Starbucks to Folgers?

Closed Doors, Empty Hallways

Have you perhaps noticed that it's harder to get in to see your manager lately?  Or harder to get a straight answer from her?  Does he seem distracted, frazzled, pissed off?  I mean more than usual.  If it's yes, maybe that's a sign that trouble is brewing.  Maybe not, but it wouldn't hurt to look again.  Huddling behind closed doors is a classic signal of trouble.  In a large organization, you may never get to see it coming because you're separated by multiple layers of management (these days, yet another possible indicator of problems).  Though there may be a crisis looming, the behavior that would be a tip-off happens on another floor or in another building.  Eventually, it will seep to your level.  So, keep your eye on your manager and your manager's manager.

Is more time than usual being spent in regularly scheduled meetings?  Does management keep late night or weekend hours which aren't the norm?  Are offsite management meetings taking place?  If more than one of these is happening, you can be pretty sure that something is up.  That something might be positive, but it's your own manager's behavior that may confirm your suspicions.

Don't avoid the situation if you're worried.  Make overtures - even simple ones like "Hi, how's it going" - to take your manager's temperature.  Pay close attention to potential changes in behavior.  When you try to talk, do you get brushed off?  Does your boss try to keep it really short?  Is she maintaining eye contact, or does she dart glances away or over your shoulder?  How does he react to being asked to have lunch or grab a beer after work, if these are normal for you both?

A pattern of increasingly distant behavior screams that something is going on.  You've got two choices: pretend that nothing is wrong (as my spouse says, "Is it dark up there where your head is?") or take some action.  Ask your manager for a short, private meeting behind closed doors.  Put your concerns on the table and request the truth.  You may get it -- you may not.  Your manager may not have it to give.  But most people are pretty bad liars.  Watch that eye contact and you may have your answer.  Just remember, most of us are good at telling ourselves what we want to hear.  It's hard to solicit bad news.

What to Do if You Think You're Next

To bail … or not to bail, that's the question.  Whether 'tis better to ride it out or to look elsewhere - well, that's your call.  But it's always a good idea to be ready, just in case.  Pull out your resume and get that sucker up to date.  Check out my July, 1999 column, Resume (Up to) Speed for some tips.  Then post it onto JobCircle and change your status to "Actively Looking."  You'll have a head start if it does turn out that the downturn is imminent.

Resurrect that network of yours and get in touch with everybody.  Tell them that you've sensed an undercurrent and have decided to look around proactively.  Making sure, of course, that you've identified a job target so that you have a ready answer when you're asked what it is you want to do.

You might also decide that this is the perfect time to jump into that training course you've been putting off.  It never hurts to brush up on existing skills or learn some new ones.  This might, however, not be the perfect time to plunk down a lot of money you don't have - even though training is a good investment.  If you do lose your job, you'll want to avoid increasing your debt level.

Speaking of which, this would be an excellent time to increase the proportion of your savings.  Most experts recommend having a minimum of 6 months worth of living expenses on hand in case of a layoff.  If you're covered, good for you!  If not, cut back on unnecessary expenditures and first pay down high-interest debt obligations.  There's no value in saving your cash and continuing to pay the minimum payment on your credit card balance - you'll still be behind.

Of course, you could just roll the dice and hope it all just blows over.

What if You Really Are Next

You might get lucky.  Or you might not.  An old friend of mine used to say, "Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean there isn't someone out to get you."  When faced with needs to reduce expenses, an across-the-board layoff isn't the only option.  It isn't even the first option.  You need to check your attitude to make sure that you aren't seen as expendable.  Hey, don't kid yourself.  Very, very few people actually are indispensable.

It may not matter that you're the tech lead on a key project if your boss thinks you're a chronic complainer.  Have you loudly criticized management for their inability to stick with a business model while standing in the break room?  Are you always a member of the group that slices up the Sales Manager for cutting 30% out of the proposal the first time the customer says that he's considering another firm?  You might want to consider keeping your comments to yourself for the good of your career.  Or at least until you've determined whether you're at risk … or have accepted another job.

More

No need to replicate current stock market conditions in your worklife.  Don't be panicky without good reason - but do pay attention to what's going on around you.  What do you see at your company?  Write to me at jamie@jobcircle.com.  Next month, What to Do in a Tight Market.

Enjoy this article?  Read more of JobCircle.com's Career Coach articles.

Jamie Fabian spent more than 15 years as a human resources executive before changing careers to become a senior project manager for a growing IT consulting company.  Now in management consulting for a large Pharma company, Jamie would like to be seen as a hybrid of Tom Peters, Tom Jackson, and Tom Wolfe, but spends too much time working, driving carpool and watching mindless TV to write more than this column.  You can contact Jamie with questions and comments at jamie@jobcircle.com.